金融机构对2024的展望

金融机构对2024的展望。
这篇直拖着，今天补一下。
原文标题：
Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall StreetExpects in 2024
原文地址：
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-investment-outlooks/?utm_medium=deeplink&sref=nyoYXY2t

原文我去不就解读了，有兴趣的可以去翻翻，我就用统计学解释一下。
先对全文做一次分析，这个是文中的词频（我已经把am is are年份高等无意义测词去掉了）。可见市场最关心的还是通胀和利率，但是似乎growth会是2024年的主题，risk仅仅只排在第四。同时经济衰退的担忧依然很大。从投资品类来看，债券看来比较受欢迎。

对全文做情感分析后，分数仅仅只有0.0996，也就是接近0.1，中性，乐观都算不上。下面我会用两种方法进行分析。一种是根据主题进行分析，一种是根据机构进行分析。
主题情绪分析：

虽然都偏向正面，但是对于七巨头的评判依然是最积极的，对于金属类的情绪比较差。我们对积极词频和消极词频进行统计，得到完全不同的结果。在收益率和降级放缓这两个主题下，积极的词频都非常高，而对于上图我们看到的七巨头的高情绪值来说，在下图中，积极词频很少。对通胀和衰退依然是担忧的，看来软着陆的可能性并不是那么大。

上图是机构的情绪情况。58家机构中有两家是负面的，最大值0.2565，最小值-0.0206，平均值0.1027，中位值0.12028。可见机构对市场并不是很乐观。

最后，把最积极的10个句子和最消极的10个句子摘录出来。
最积极的10个句子：

1. We think the market is vacillating betweena US recession and a soft landing, underestimating the possibility of anemicgrowth.
2. The already potentially attractive returnsin emerging-market fixed income will be boosted further should the US dollar complete its over-extended bull cycle.
3. Even this pace of global growth reliesheavily on the emerging-market world with India (6%) and China (4.7%) big contributors.
4. Lower rates could support morerate-sensitive economies.
5. We note that the geopolitical landscape isbecoming increasingly complex and challenging, with tensions evident from Ukraine to Taiwan and now Israel.
6. The potential for modest default rates nextyear should also set the stage for distressed lending to outperform.
7. We expect 2024 to be the year when centralbanks can successfully orchestrate a soft landing, though recognize that downside risks may outnumber the upside ones.
8. Due to valuation compression, we’reslightly less positive toward US large caps than we were last quarter.
9. We expect more tiering and wider spreads.
10. Emerging-market local bonds and EMcurrencies are both attractively valued.
    

最消极的10个句子：

1. In our view, we will only see a return tothe old risk-on/risk-off world once global growth genuinely surprises to the downside, and recession fears take over from inflation and interest rate concerns.
2. With central banks all but finished raisinginterest rates, the start of a rate cutting cycle in 2024 would be a real support for bonds.
3. Income generation from an options strategycould be particularly useful for defensive positioning when equity market outlooks call for increased risk or muted forward-looking returns.
4. We are long duration, but not that long.
5. Bond yields themselves face ahigher-for-longer narrative.
6. The diversification of equity performancedrivers is anticipated, requiring more detailed factor allocation in portfolio construction.
7. However, the potential for a globalrecession in 2024 could result in further upside for the dollar in the short-term as investors flock to the relative safety of US assets.
8. Add more EM local currency debt after theFed starts cutting rates and the US dollar weakens.
9. However, the technical backdrop remainschallenged.
10. We believe we are now in the early phasesof “There Are Reasonable Alternatives” (TARA), such as core fixed income, including high-quality government and corporate bonds.